July Ice Conditions

As noted below (April update), the ice cover this spring was very vulnerable to a rapid ice loss. Looking at the evolution of the ice cover this summer, the 2008 ice cover declined quickly in May and by the middle of June, the 2008 and 2007 ice extent was similar (Figure 1). However, the rapid decline in late June and early July in 2007 did not re-occur in 2008, and by the middle of July, the 2008 ice extent was roughly 1 million square kilometers larger than 2007 (just less than the area of Texas and California combined).

Figure 1. Sea-ice extent from 2007 and 2008, compared with the 1979-2000 average./

So what will happen next? The ice cover north of Alaska remains much below average, with below-average ice cover over large parts of the Arctic (Figure 2). Our forecast models are not currentl suggesting a high chance of a new record, but the ice remains very dynamic, and it is still too early to convincingly know what will happen. Stay tuned!

Figure 2. Sea-ice cover and anomaly for August 3, 2008.

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments!

April Ice Conditions

Following the record low 2007 summer sea ice extent, winter ice re-grew at exceptional rates, and the sea ice extent is now at 96% of average. But does that mean it has recovered? Certainly not. The ice currently covering the Arctic Ocean is much younger and thinner than normal (Figure 3), setting the stage for a run at a new record low in 2008.

Figure 3. Sea-ice age and anomaly for March, 2008./

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments!